A hotter-than-expected inflation report sent stocks sharply lower last week as investors faced the prospect of more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve for perhaps a longer period.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.13%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 4.77%. The Nasdaq Composite index dropped 5.48% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, dipped 1.78%.^1,2,3

Inflation Deflates Markets  

Stocks suffered their worst day in more than two years last Tuesday as markets were caught off-guard by a higher-than-anticipated August inflation report.

Markets expected the August report to show a substantial cooling of inflation, potentially allowing the Fed to ease up on interest rate hikes. Instead, the elevated inflation number not only undercut those easing hopes but raised the possibility of a more significant rate hike. On Tuesday, traders assigned a 28% probability of a 100 basis point hike, from a 0% chance just the day before. Price action remained choppy for the remainder of the week, closing the week with additional losses as a global package-delivery company warned of a worldwide recession.⁴

August CPI Disappoints

August’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.3% from a year ago, showing a continued deceleration in price increases (July’s CPI was 8.5%, and June’s was 9.1%). Despite moderating price increases, traders were disappointed, given the general expectation of a more substantial slowdown in inflation.⁵

Core inflation (excluding food and energy) was particularly alarming to investors, which jumped 6.3% year-over-year. That number was well above the 5.9% rate from June and July. From the market’s perspective, sufficient inflationary pressures exist for the Fed to maintain its hawkish interest rate policy for possibly longer than investors had hoped.⁶

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Housing Starts.

Wednesday: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Announcement. Existing Home Sales.

Thursday: Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Jobless Claims.

Friday: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite.

^{Source: Econoday, September 16, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: AutoZone, Inc. (AZO).

Wednesday: General Mills, Inc. (GIS).

Thursday: Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), FedEx Corporation (FDX), Lennar Corporation (LEN).

^{Source: Zacks, September 16, 2022
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

Meet With Crown Haven Wealth Advisors

For a limited time, Casey Marx- Founder & CEO of Crown Haven Wealth Advisors, is accepting new clients. Many have said they’re concerned about inflation and rising interest rates. Now, tapping into 40 years of combined experience, Casey and his team of experts are here to help.

Secure your retirement. Click here to schedule a complimentary relationship visit or call (317) 564-4691 to speak with one of our specialists.

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, September 16, 2022}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, September 16, 2022}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, September 16, 2022}

^{4. The Wall Street Journal, September 13, 2022}

^{5. The Wall Street Journal, September 13, 2022}

^{6. The Wall Street Journal, September 13, 2022}

^{7. IRS.gov, March 16, 2022} 

^{8. USAPickleball.org, May 26, 2022}

09/06/22 Wealth Management Insights. The overhang of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech the previous week carried over into last week as investors recalibrated stock valuations amid a seemingly more assertive monetary policy stance.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.99%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 stumbled 3.29%. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 4.21%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slid 4.90%. ^1,2,3

Stocks Extend Losses

Investors remained unnerved by the aggressive tone of Jerome Powell’s speech and subsequent comments from Fed officials suggesting a higher rate hike than the market expected at the Fed two-day meeting ending September 21. The probability of a 75 basis point hike in September rose to nearly 65%, up from just 28% a month ago. ⁴

Stocks moved steadily lower before finding some footing on Thursday. Friday’s employment report appeared to strike a “goldilocks” note (i.e., labor gains not so strong that it might trigger greater Fed hawkishness but robust enough to allay imminent recession fears). After early gains, stocks turned lower ahead of the holiday weekend. 

Employment Shines

Employers added 315,000 jobs in August, maintaining the labor market’s remarkable resiliency amid a contracting economy. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, up from last month’s 3.5%. The gain followed an uptick in the labor participation rate, which expanded from 62.1% to 62.4%. Wages continued to grow, rising 0.3% in August and 5.2% from 12 months ago. ⁵

Sectors seeing the most significant increases in new jobs were professional and business services, healthcare, and retail. Lagging sectors were manufacturing, financial, and wholesale trade. ⁶ 

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index.
Thursday: Jobless Claims.

Source: Econoday, September 2, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Thursday: Zscaler, Inc. (ZS), Docusign (DOCU).
Friday: The Kroger Co. (KR).

Meet With Crown Haven Wealth Advisors

Crown Haven Wealth Advisors has a limited number of free financial planning sessions available.  We are happy to have the meeting with you in person in our offices in Carmel, Indiana, by Zoom or over the phone. You can schedule your complimentary appointment online or by calling 317-564-4691

Sources

Source: Zacks, September 2, 2022
The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Footnotes and Sources

<sup>1. The Wall Street Journal, September 2, 2022
2. The Wall Street Journal, September 2, 2022
3. The Wall Street Journal, September 2, 2022
4. The Wall Street Journal, August 29, 2022
5. CNBC, September 2, 2022</sup>

08/22/22 Wealth Management Insights. Stocks tumbled on Friday, sending the market to a weekly loss after an otherwise quiet week of trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped -0.16%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 1.21%. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 2.62% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.88%. ^1,2,3

Summer Rally Hits Pause Button

The market rally that began in mid-June paused last week. Despite the week’s losses, stocks exhibited resiliency in the face of a string of troubling economic news that included flat retail sales, weak housing numbers, an inversion in the yield curve, and tepid economic data out of China.

Nevertheless, stocks tumbled on Friday amid hawkish comments about future rate hikes, rising bond yields, and ahead of the annual meeting of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in which Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on August 26th.

Expect More Rate Hikes

Minutes from July’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicated that additional rate hikes would be needed to help manage inflation. Fed officials did acknowledge that further rate hikes risked unintended economic weakness because of the time it takes for higher rates to work through the economy. The committee indicated that they might slow rate hikes to determine the impact of previous rate increases. 4

The minutes also contained the Fed’s latest economic forecasts, which projected inflation to decline faster than its June estimate due to a bigger economic slowdown in the year’s second half. 5

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Flash. New Home Sales.

Wednesday: Durable Goods Orders.

Thursday: Jobless Claims. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Source: Econoday, August 19, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW), Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM).

Tuesday: Intuit, Inc. (INTU).

Wednesday: Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), Salesforce, Inc. (CRM), Snowflake, Inc. (SNOW).

Thursday: Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL), Dollar General Corporation (DG), Dell Technologies, Inc. (DELL), VMware, Inc. (VMW).

Meet With Crown Haven Wealth Advisors

Many people have said they’re concerned about inflation and rising interest rates. For a limited time, Casey Marx, Founder & CEO of Crown Haven Wealth Advisors, is accepting new clients.

Now, tapping into 40 years of combined experience, Casey and his team of experts are here to help. Secure your retirement. Click here to schedule a complimentary relationship visit or call (317) 564-4691 to speak with one of our specialists.

Source: Zacks, August 19, 2022
The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Footnotes and Sources

1. The Wall Street Journal, August 19, 2022
2. The Wall Street Journal, August 19, 2022
3. The Wall Street Journal, August 19, 2022
4. The Wall Street Journal, August 17, 2022
5. The Wall Street Journal, August 17, 2022

08/08/22 Wealth Management Insights. Stocks turned in a mixed performance last week as investors struggled with headlines suggesting that the Fed was unlikely to soon ease up on its current monetary tightening policy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.13%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 0.36%. The Nasdaq Composite index picked up 2.15% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.23%. ^1,2,3

Showing Resilience

Ahead of Friday’s employment report, stocks were generally higher, highlighted by a Wednesday rally triggered by fresh earnings surprises and a better-than-expected economic report. The rally was especially notable because it occurred when multiple Fed officials said that the fight against inflation hadn’t ended, perhaps throwing cold water on the idea that the Fed might pivot due to weakening economic activity and the prospect of cooling inflation.

Aside from this single day of enthusiasm, markets were a bit jittery, especially as investors monitored Speaker of the House Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. A robust employment report on Friday reinforced the idea that the Fed would likely stay the course on monetary tightening, resulting in a mixed market for the week.

Employment Report

The U.S economy added 528,000 jobs in July, doubling the consensus expectation of 258,000. The unemployment rate ticked lower, falling from 3.6% to 3.5%. Coincident with this job creation was strong wage growth, as average hourly earnings rose 0.5% in July and 5.2% from a year ago. ⁴

Leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and healthcare lead the way in reported job gains, as seen in most sectors of the economy. Even sectors such as construction, particularly vulnerable to rising interest rates, saw job gains. The labor force participation rate moved slightly lower, slipping to 62.1%–its lowest level this year. ⁵

Meet With Crown Haven Wealth Advisors

For a limited time, Casey Marx- Founder & CEO of Crown Haven Wealth Advisors, is accepting new clients. Many have said they’re concerned about inflation and rising interest rates.

Now, tapping into 40 years of combined experience, Casey and his team of experts are here to help. Secure your retirement. Click here to schedule a complimentary relationship visit or call (317) 564-4691 to speak with one of our specialists.

Footnotes and Sources

<sup>1. The Wall Street Journal, August 5, 2022
2. The Wall Street Journal, August 5, 2022
3. The Wall Street Journal, August 5, 2022
4. CNBC, August 5, 2022
5. CNBC, August 5, 2022</sup>

08/01/22 Wealth Management Insights. Undaunted by another Fed rate hike and news of a contracting economy, the stock market rallied last week on better-than-expected corporate earnings.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.97%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 picked up 4.26%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 4.70% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 0.95%.^1,2,3

It was an inauspicious start to the week after a big-box retailer missed earnings and reduced forward guidance on Tuesday, sparking a broad market retreat.

But sentiment improved following mega-cap technology company earnings that proved better than expected. Enthusiasm gathered steam in the wake of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike, boosted by Fed Chair Powell’s comments following Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Powell indicated that it might become appropriate to slow the pace of future hikes, and he didn’t believe the economy had entered into recession. Stocks on Thursday shrugged off news of a second-consecutive quarter of negative economic growth to build on Wednesday’s gains as fresh earnings continued to comfort, if not impress, investors.⁴

Economy Contracts 

The U.S. economy shrank at an annualized rate of 0.9% in the second quarter as consumers pulled back on spending and businesses worked to reduce inventories. It was the second-consecutive quarter of negative economic growth, meeting the technical definition of a recession. Unlike past recessions, hiring has been strong all year, with the unemployment rate near historic lows.⁵

The economic slowdown was attributable primarily to decreases in inventories, a deceleration in the housing market, and lower government spending. Consumer spending increased a tepid one percent, well below the inflation rate during the same period.⁶

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index.

Tuesday: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

Wednesday: Automated Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index. Factory Orders.

Thursday: Jobless Claims.

Friday: Employment Situation.

^{Source: Econoday, July 29, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

For a limited time, Casey Marx- Founder & CEO of Crown Haven Wealth Advisors, is accepting new clients. Many have said they’re concerned about inflation and rising interest rates.

Now, tapping into 40 years of combined experience, Casey and his team of experts are here to help. Secure your retirement. Click here to schedule a complimentary relationship visit or call (317) 564-4691 to speak with one of our specialists.