07/18/22 Wealth Management Insights

Another Setback
A rally on Friday in the wake of a solid report on monthly retail sales wasn’t enough to offset the stock market’s rough start to the week. The major U.S. indexes recorded small declines, falling for the 12th week out of the past 15.

Retail Resilience
U.S. retail sales rose 1.0% in June, slightly above expectations despite surging inflation and recently weak consumer sentiment readings. However, the sales gain that the government reported on Friday wasn’t adjusted for inflation, which rose 1.3% in June, indicating that real sales were slightly negative.

Earnings Kickoff
A handful of major U.S. banks kicked off earnings season with mixed results. Entering earnings season, analysts were forecasting that second-quarter earnings for banks in the S&P 500 fell 26% from a year ago, in part due to higher costs from provisions for loan losses, according to FactSet.

Fed Ahead
With the U.S. annual inflation rate now at 9.1%, policymakers face pressure to approve another big interest-rate increase at Wednesday’s U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting. At its mid-June meeting, the Fed lifted its short-term target range by three-quarters of a percentage point- the biggest hike since 1994 and a similar steep increase is expected heading into this week’s gathering, with some economists expecting rates will go up a full percentage point.

We are Indiana’s #1 fiduciary with 40 years of combined experience is offering a limited number of spots for our free financial planning sessions. No cost. No obligation.
And our team is happy to meet with you online or in our offices located in Carmel, IN.

It’s not too late to secure your retirement for a future you can truly rely on. Click here to schedule a complimentary relationship visit or call (317) 564-4691 to speak with one of our specialists.

Casey Marx Outlook Update 07/13/22

The June 2022 inflation report just came out and the number was 9.1%. A lot higher than was initially anticipated and now you have all the prognosticators in the market and the media coming out and arguing why that is the case.

Watch Casey Marx RICP® Discuss The June Inflation Number

The June inflation report just came out, and the number was 9.1%. A lot higher than was initially anticipated. Now you have all the prognosticators in the market and the media coming out and arguing why that is the case.

The federal reserve is going to have to get a lot more aggressive near term to crush demand. We had significance and what that means is there’s going to be a lot of pain ahead.

What does that mean for you?

I would like to invite everyone watching this out there to do is to reach out to us at crown Haven to learn about our RetireSHIELD® program and learn what our clients already know.

It is not too late to stop the bleeding.

It is not too late to put yourself in a position for success

Short-term there is going to be a lot of pain, and coming back from a loss is very difficult.

I highly recommend that you analyze both your risk capacity and your time horizon for your investment. Crown Haven Wealth Advisors are experts at this. I developed a proprietary financial plan called RetireSHIELD®.

To learn more about our financial planning process, I invite you to schedule a relationship call to understand your unique goals and objective and how we can create a custom retirement plan for you. Just click “Relationship Building Call – 15 minutes” below to get started.

Casey Marx Outlook Update 07/13/22

The June inflation report just came out and the number was 9.1%. A lot higher than was initially anticipated and now you have all the prognosticators in the market and the media coming out and arguing why that is the case.

Watch Casey Marx RICP® Discuss The June Inflation Number

The June inflation report just came out and the number was 9.1%. A lot higher than was initially anticipated and now you have all the prognosticators in the market the media coming out and arguing why that is the case.

The federal reserve is going to have to get a lot more aggressive near term to crush demand. We had significance and what that means is there’s going to be a lot of pain ahead.

What does that mean for you?

I would like to invite everyone watching this out there to do is to reach out to us at crown Haven to learn about our RetireSHIELD® program and learn what our clients already know.

It is not too late to stop the bleeding.

It is not too late to put yourself in a position for success

Short-term there is going to be a lot of pain and coming back from a loss is very difficult.

I highly recommend that you analyze both your risk capacity and your time horizon for your investment. Crown Haven Wealth Advisors are experts at this. I developed a proprietary financial plan called RetireSHIELD®.

To learn more about it I invite you to schedule a relationship call to understand your unique goals and objective and how we can create a custom retirement plan for you. Just click “Relationship Building Call – 15 minutes” below to get started.

07/11/22 Wealth Management Insights

Flip Flop
U.S. stocks posted modest weekly gains, reversing the negative trend of the previous week. There was a wide divergence across the major U.S. indexes, with the NASDAQ gaining nearly 5%, the S&P 500 adding 2%, and the Dow rising less than 1%.

Yield Curve Inversion
For the second time this year, the yield curve inverted, as the yield of the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond on Tuesday rose above the yield of the 10-year bond. Such an inversion is an indicator of concerns about short-term interest-rate increases as well as the possibility that a recession could loom ahead. The curve also briefly inverted in early April.

Price Check
A Consumer Price Index report scheduled to be released on Wednesday will show whether the U.S. economy got any relief last month from surging inflation. In May, inflation accelerated at an 8.6% annual rate the highest since 1981 and above the previous month’s 8.3% figure.

Currency Convergence
The year-to-date strengthening of the U.S. dollar relative to the euro has brought the value of the two currencies to a near-parity level for the first time in two decades. On Friday morning, the value of a single euro fell as low as $1.008. The last time the two currencies reached parity was in late 2002.

We are Indiana’s #1 fiduciary with 40 years of combined experience is offering a limited number of spots for our free financial planning sessions. No cost. No obligation.
And our team is happy to meet with you online or in our offices located in Carmel, IN.

It’s not too late to secure your retirement for a future you can truly rely on. Click here to schedule a complimentary relationship visit or call (317) 564-4691 to speak with one of our specialists.

06/27/22 Wealth Management Insights

06/27/22 Wealth Management Insights

Roaring Back
After declining for three weeks in a row, the major U.S. stock indexes regained their footing, with the NASDAQ surging more than 7%, the S&P 500 adding more than 6%, and the Dow rising more than 5%. The results marked a near mirror-image reversal from the previous week when the S&P fell into a bear market as it tumbled more than 20% from a recent high in early January.

Homebuying Anxiety
U.S. mortgage rates remained volatile as the homebuying season ramped up, with the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbing to 5.81%, according to the latest weekly report from Freddie Mac. A year ago, the average was around 3.00%; the last time the average was at today’s level was in 2008.

Sagging Indicators
A monthly survey of U.S. corporate purchasing managers showed that growth in economic activity across manufacturing and services fell to the lowest level in five months. In the eurozone, a similar survey showed that growth fell to the lowest in 16 months as rising interest rates weighed on the economy.

Top News to Watch this Week – Inflation Report Ahead
A report scheduled to be released on Thursday will be closely watched for any signs that U.S. inflation may have peaked. The government will update its Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge for tracking inflation. The latest report showed that PCE inflation moderated at an annual rate of 6.3%, although it remained close to the highest level in four decades.

We will continue to provide updates and monitor the markets closely. In the meantime, if you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact us.

06/20/22 Wealth Management Insights

The 3.9% sell-off on Monday pushed the S&P 500 into a bear market, as the index’s decline from a record high achieved on January 3, 2022, exceeded 20.0%. The NASDAQ has been in a bear market since March, while the Dow on Friday was just shy of a bear, as it was 18.7% below a record set in January. It’s important to remember that bear markets are a natural part of the market cycle and often present opportunities for investors.

Policy Tightening
The 0.75% rate increase that the U.S. Federal Reserve approved on Wednesday marked the biggest hike since 1994 and left the Fed funds target rate at a range of 1.50% to 1.75%. Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed may slow the pace of rate increases in September if economic growth slows too much

Warning Signs
U.S. retail sales slipped 0.3% in May, falling for the first time in five months amid rising inflation. A separate report showed that industrial production grew at a slower pace last month while factory production fell for the first time in four months.

Value vs. Growth
The U.S. growth stock index fell 5.1% for the week compared with a 6.6% drop for a value index, briefly interrupting the value equity style’s wide year-to-date outperformance versus growth. Year to date, a growth index was down 30.3% compared with value’s 15.2% drop.

We believe there is still reason to be optimistic. The U.S. economy continues to show signs of strength, with unemployment remaining at historically low levels and GDP growth remaining positive. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates as needed. In the meantime, if you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact us.

6/13/22 Wealth Management Insights

06/13/22 Wealth Management Insights

Please enjoy the 6/13/22 Wealth Management Insights edition from Crown Haven Wealth Advisors, Indiana’s #1 independent and fiduciary full-service firm.

Slippery Slope – The major U.S. stock indexes fell around 5% to 6%, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ posting the ninth negative weekly result out of the past ten. Most of the latest week’s decline came on Friday following the release of a monthly report on inflation that was worse than most economists had expected.

Inflation Expansion – Surging energy and food prices were key drivers of May’s increase in the Consumer Price Index to an annual rate of 8.6%, the highest since December 1981. Last month’s figure is up from 8.3% in April. Excluding energy and food, core inflation rose 0.6% on a month-to-month basis in May-the same rate as in April.

3.00%+ Yields – The week’s decline in prices of government bonds accelerated after the release of Friday’s inflation report, sending the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond higher, to 3.16%. That was up from a yield of 2.74% just two weeks earlier, and it marks the second time this year that the yield has exceeded 3.00%, with the first occurring in early May.

Top News to Watch this Week
Fed Ahead – With inflation continuing to run hot, policymakers are widely expected to approve an interest-rate increase of at least half a percentage point at Wednesday’s U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting. It would be the second half-point increase in a row-twice as big as the quarter-point increases that the Fed has typically implemented when raising rates.

6/06/22 Wealth Management Insights

Please enjoy the 6/06/22 Wealth Management Insights edition from Crown Haven Wealth Advisors, Indiana’s #1 independent and fiduciary full-service firm.

May’s Tumult – Although May produced plenty of equity market volatility on the heels of April’s sell-off, the major U.S. indexes didn’t make any big moves overall last month. The S&P 500 and the Dow both recorded gains of less than 1% in May while the NASDAQ slipped around 2%.

Jobs Consistency – The U.S. labor market’s long stretch of gains extended into May, as the economy generated 390,000 new jobs while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%. The monthly job gain was the smallest since April 2021; over the past 12 months, employers have added more than half a million jobs a month on average.

Lowering Expectations – Wall Street analysts have recently been reducing their second quarter earnings expectations. On average, analysts in April and May cut their forecasts by 1.3% for companies in the S&P 500, according to FactSet. Companies will begin releasing second-quarter results in mid-July.

Top News to Watch this Week

Price Check – A Consumer Price Index report scheduled to be released on Friday will show whether the U.S. economy got any relief in May from surging inflation. A month earlier, the government reported that inflation accelerated in April at an 8.3% annual rate slightly below the previous month’s 8.5% figure, which was the highest since 1981.

5/23/22 Wealth Management Insights

Brush with a Bear
The year-to-date sell-off in stocks accelerated, as the major U.S. Indexes fell around 3% to 4% for the week. The S&P 500 barely avoided entering a bear market at Friday’s close after having briefly fallen earlier in the afternoon to a level 20% below its record high set on January 3, 2022. The S&P 500’s weekly losing streak now stands at seven weeks in a row, the longest since 2001.

Retail Resilience
Retail sales rose at a 0.9% pace relative to the previous month, marking the fourth straight month of higher spending. However, retail sales aren’t adjusted for inflation, so sales figures tend to rise in tandem with price increases, which erode consumers’ buying power.

Currency Convergence
The year-to-date strengthening of the U.S. dollar relative to the euro has brought the value of the two currencies closer to parity. As of Friday, the dollar had gained about 7% year to date on the European Union’s common currency, leaving the value of a single euro at about $1.05. The last time the two currencies reached parity was in late 2002.

Top News to Watch this Week

Worth Watching
With monetary policy and inflation front and center these days, the pending releases of two reports are likely to attract plenty of attention in the new week. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to release minutes from its policy meeting in early May. On Friday, the government will update its Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge for tracking inflation.

5/09/22 Wealth Management Insights

Losing Traction – The major U.S. indexes fell for the fifth week in a row after a rapid shift in sentiment sent stocks reeling on Thursday. On Friday, an employment report showed that the economy generated 428,000 jobs in April, and the major indexes ended up with relatively modest weekly declines: -1.5% for the NASDAQ and about -0.2% for the S&P 500 and Dow.

3.00% + Yields – Prices of government bonds fell, sending the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond surging late in the week. The yield jumped from 2.92% to 3.07% on Thursday before climbing to 3.13% on Friday, the highest level since November 2018. As recently as mid-2020, the yield was around 0.50%.

GDP Speed Bump? – The U.S. economy reversed course in this year’s first quarter when it shrank at an annual rate of 1.4% after posting full-year growth of 5.7% in 2021. While many economists believe the first-quarter setback was temporary, it marked the worst quarterly GDP result since the second quarter of 2020, when the pandemic triggered a brief recession.

Top News to Watch this Week
Price Check – A Consumer Price Index report scheduled to be released on Wednesday will show whether the U.S. economy got any relief in April from surging inflation. A month earlier, the government reported that inflation accelerated in March at an 8.5% annual rate, the highest since 1981-eclipsing the previous month’s 7.9% figure.

If you are in the Indianapolis area and looking for financial advice we are happy to have the meeting with you in person at our offices in Carmel, Indiana, by Zoom or over the phone. Visit our “Schedule An Appointment” page and book a 15-minute “Relationship Building Call” to start the process. The goal during this brief conversation is to understand what your unique goals and objectives are and whether or not Crown Haven can serve as an ideal fit to help.